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DDR3降价与否的其次原因

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发表于 2010-8-29 10:39:34
本帖最后由 hhh0503 于 2010-8-29 10:49 编辑

Last week, Japanese website PC Watch published an interesting piece in which a basic outline was given of DRAM memory technology evolution from DDR3 to DDR4 over the next few years. Following the recent MemCon 2010 event last month in Tokyo, the site has combined the roadmaps of several DRAM manufacturers in the industry and aggregated them into prediction charts on what they expect DDR4 to offer. Based on the first chart, it appears that the consensus of manufacturers expect DDR4 to really hit the market in 2015. In other words, none of these IC specifications should be anything for system builders to be concerned over for quite some time.
The JEDEC standards group has announced its intentions to finalize the DDR4 specification sometime in 2011 and begin commercial production in 2012. However, the next generation DDR4 SDRAM memory technology is expected to introduce a radical change to the topology of the chipset memory subsystems on desktops, notebooks and in enterprise server environments. As bit-tech mentioned back in April, Intel's upcoming Sandy Bridge-E platform based on socket LGA 2011 is expected to feature quad-channel DDR3 memory, or one DIMM per channel in order to maximize memory bandwidth available to the rest of the system. This type of implementation would require a Point-to-Point memory controller design, where parallelism shifts from the DIMM channels to the memory controller itself.

In order to compensate for high memory capacity in the enterprise server marketplace, it is expected that server motherboards will use high performance digital switches to distribute memory controller processing to a larger number of channel nodes. The concept is very similar to the PCI-Express switches that have been implemented over the years, and many will probably recall Nvidia's NForce 200 chip performing a nearly identical function for distributing more lanes to high-bandwidth GPUs. However, analysts are expecting the server implementation to use some form of error checking and correction due to the complexity of the subsystem topology.

As far as performance is concerned, we can expect DDR4 memory to scale up to and possibly over 4.266GHz speeds by 2015. While JEDEC continues its work on finalizing the performance aspect of the next-generation standard, it is expected that DDR3 should receive a new frequency standard that should scale all the way up to 2133MHz at just 1.25v. By this time, DDR4 will have just been introduced to the market (the enthusiast market, we should say) and will continue the performance roadmap around DDR4-2133MHz at 1.20v. As PC Watch notes, however, there is a misconception between how much voltage is decreasing in the technology roadmap versus how much power consumption is increasing relative to the original PC-133 at 3.3v memory specification. Although DDR4 2133MHz memory at 1.20v seems like a significant accomplishment for JEDEC and industry giants, the standard actually consumes four times more power for performance than SDR 133MHz memory did at 3.3v so long ago. In essence, it is the quality of the size reductions on future advanced processing nodes at 28nm and below that will determine the scale of efficiency for future memory modules.

上文大意:DDR4的酝酿最早从2013年开始,真正民用化应该是2015年(天哪!猴年马月,到时候可能真跳过DDR4也说不准)
DDR4的起跳频率可以说相当惊人2000MHz 最高可以达到4000HMz(这个数字有待日后考证)

再来几个图大致说明下

此图只是计划,计划赶不上变化嘛。随便看看。


此图大致说明了一个DDR2,DDR3直到DDR4的进展周期。当然主板,芯片等等的因素也要考虑进去。随便看看参考下。

当然DDR4上市价格肯定不会被广大玩家接受的,那么DDR3在这么长的一个周期中还有很大作为

加上最近的装机热潮逐步退去,市场并不乐观。上涨肯定是不可能了,DDR3是急转直下呢?还是维持原价?工厂、供应商、销售商大家也都是要吃饭的。

2年前被白菜内存恶心过了,现逐步持条观望ing
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发表于 2010-8-29 10:45:11
本帖最后由 hhh0503 于 2010-8-29 10:50 编辑

目前可以说PC又进入一个缓和发展的时代。不论出货量大小,价格应该是很平稳的。所有厂商也都明白,马甲一代又一代。消费的只是个进化过的名字而已。

而内存这种东西 可以说是刚性的。是多少就是多少,同接口所处的周期又长,也批不上小红袄。

同时在2015年以前,也不会有什么可靠的家用系统去识别4G以上的内条。

对于逐步的电脑性能过剩,而游戏市场又有强大性能的专业游戏机支持。几年后的市场激烈层度可想而知。也有微软被扫地出门的可能,哈哈:a36:



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发表于 2010-8-29 16:57:46
同意楼上的
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发表于 2010-8-30 10:04:59
LZ说得好{:4_316:}
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发表于 2010-8-30 13:55:16
一直不明白3通道对于民用有毛用。
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发表于 2010-8-31 07:06:12
3通道没什么大用处 倒是 双通道的 4GB显得很尴尬   32BIT出来的3G不够用  4GB用不到
倒是 3通道的 6GB恰到好处
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发表于 2010-8-31 09:59:25
先解决了64BIT的兼容性问题再说吧。。。。
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发表于 2010-8-31 14:17:06
D4早着呢
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发表于 2010-9-1 17:22:03
还是先把D3降到白菜价再说吧,呵呵
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发表于 2010-9-1 17:23:25
250左右是合理价
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